NBL odds guide
NBL line betting: the half-point difference
See how +3.5 and +4.5 alter the result required before comparing decimal prices.
A line is a score condition
With Team A +4.5, a four-point loss still covers. At +3.5, that four-point loss fails to cover. On the favourite side, Team B −3.5 covers a four-point win while −4.5 does not. The half point can therefore reverse settlement without any difference in which team won the game.
Keep separate price rows
Book A may list Team A +4.5 at 1.86 while Book B lists +3.5 at 1.95. The latter pays more if it wins but requires a better game result. The board should show two line rows, not badge 1.95 as the best price for +4.5. Confirm both quotes are for the same full-game period and settlement terms.
Compare payout only after matching
At identical +4.5 lines, a $100 winning stake returns $190 at 1.90 and $195 at 1.95. That $5 comparison is valid because the winning condition is the same. It says nothing about whether Team A is likely to cover.
Worked example
Illustration: Team A loses by four. Team A +4.5 at 1.86 wins; Team A +3.5 at 1.95 loses. The larger decimal number is attached to a harder threshold.
Illustrative numbers for explaining the calculation. They are not current bookmaker quotes.
Sources and method
All NBL prices and margins are hypothetical. The article illustrates line settlement and gross return, not a current betting opportunity.
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